Economic impacts of droughts in the Syrian Arab Republic and floods in the Republic of Yemen

In the long term, climate change will have a detrimental impact on the economies and people of Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen, but the most severe negative effects may take some time to materialize even without mitigation or adaptation measures. In Syria and Yemen, however, extreme climate variability has already weakened the agricultural sector, the economy, and people’s livelihoods. Syria suffers frequently from drought. Low rainfall leads to lower crop yields or, in extreme cases, to complete loss of the harvest, especially for rainfed agriculture. Droughts also harm the livestock sector, particularly animals that rely on pastures for feed. Prolonged periods of low rainfall exacerbate the impacts. Droughts are also likely to have an indirect effect on nonagricultural sectors of the economy and nonfarm households. Yemen, onthe other hand, is prone to damaging floods. Whereas regular flooding has traditionally been beneficial for agriculture in Yemen, high-magnitude flooding often leads to losses of cropland, uprooting of fruit trees, death of animals caught in high floodwater surges, and destruction of infrastructure, such as irrigation facilities and rural roads. Flood damage is exacerbated by ongoing desertification and land degradation. In addition, several GCMs predict higher
rainfall for Yemen, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of floods
in the future.