Biofuels, Food Security, and the Environment: A 2020/2050 Perspective

This chapter explores the impacts that rapid growth in biofuel demand has on agricultural prices, the consumption levels of key staple commodities, and the resulting impacts on food security and nutrition. The results clearly show a “food-versus-fuel” tradeoff that any national plan for biofuel expansion should take into account. Intensified biofuel production would likely increase the number of malnourished people. Rapid biofuel expansion also has a significant impact on international trade, particularly the global trade balance of maize. In addition, the results indicate that expansion of biofuels would increase the stress on regional water supplies only marginally; however, a significant expansion of biofuel production in areas facing water scarcity could exacerbate the problem. Aside from food security concerns, the expansion of biofuels entails additional tradeoffs with environmental sustainability, and the goals of overall economic growth and poverty reduction.